CONCORD, H.H. — As I write this, the polls here opening in just a few hours, the signs point to Sen. Clinton treating Nevada like her ultimate firewall. If that’s the case, we can expect 10 days of tough campaigning back home, heavy on the negatives from the Clinton camp. And the Obama team will respond.

The Clinton campaign will attack Obama’s record by pointing out some flip flopping and portray him as just another politician. Will it work? Well, even a sliver of something can be used for an effective negative attack. But from here it looks like they’re struggling to come up with anything effective.

They seem to be going to the left-leaning press to float some possibilities. A liberal magazine writer told me the “oppo research” he’s been shown is thin, essentially unusable. (”Oppo research” is the innocuous term used in politics to mean the dirt you dig up on your opponent.)

I asked this writer if maybe they didn’t hire the right people or didn’t put resources into the project. He looked at me and laughed — the Clintons do this stuff well, so the idea that they didn’t hire the right oppo research team was a naive question.

(This is not to say Obama is invincible or wouldn’t get flayed in a general election campaign. But it’s harder for Clinton because it can be more difficult to attack someone who’s with you ideologically. So, for instance, Clinton can’t attack him over tax increases, because she’s right there with him.)

Josh Marshall at Talking Points Memo has been on the receiving end of the same thin gruel oppo research, apparently. He began his career as a neo-liberal journalist, meaning very friendly to Clinton’s New Democrat message, and he knows a lot of people in Washington. Now he runs a liberal blog with a team of investigative reporters.

Money line: “Through the day I got pitched, formally and informally, by various Clintonites on Obama stories, most of which were almost embarrassing to hear. I don’t use these words and phrases lightly or indiscriminately. I find it difficult to conceive of how unprepared her team was for this not-that-hard-to-predict turn of events.”

Re-reading it now, I noticed a key phrase: “Most of which….”